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Long Term Unemployment is Rising
And Here’s Why It’s Not Getting Better Anytime Soon
Amanda Goodall
October 11, 2024 • Estimated Reading Time: 18 minutes
Let’s get one thing straight the employment situation in the U.S. is not just about month-to-month job growth or a few rosy headlines about wage increases. The media is pushing these more than I have ever seen it before… and call it election year or not… it’s not changing what it happening on the ground. Now, if you know me, you know I don’t focus much on the sub100K jobs, but after looking into the long term unemployment levels, I thought this was super important to discuss. I have a new YouTube video coming out on this too - keep a watch this weekend.
The 23.7% of long-term unemployed we’re seeing now isn’t just a number - it’s a symptom of a very entrenched problem that isn’t going away with a few tweaks in fiscal policy or an uptick in job openings. Yeah, the September jobs report looked amazing right? Well, let’s wait until revisions happen…
Food and beverage industry as well as health care saw notable gains; manufacturing and transportation shed jobs in Sept 2024
“Hiring in the government sector rose again in September with a gain of 31,000 — though it was at a slower pace than the average of 45,000 a month in the past year. The sector's gains last month were primarily among local government (+16,000) and state government (+13,000).”
This isn’t your typical recovery cycle, and it’s time to face some facts.
We’re sitting on a powder keg of long-term unemployment, and the reality is grim. The numbers have just been lagging.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of long-term unemployed workers—those out of work for 27 weeks or more—has surged to nearly a quarter of all unemployed people in the country as of September 2024. This level of long-term unemployment hasn’t been this persistent since the economic fallout from the 2008 recession. And if you’re sitting there, hoping things will bounce back, it’s time for a reality check: the market isn’t coming back to you—you have to go out and grab it.
Unemployment Rate September 2024
Breaking Down the Data: Who’s Being Left Behind?
What’s worse, this problem is disproportionately hitting certain industries. Look at the manufacturing sector, where automation has replaced many traditional roles, leaving a trail of jobless workers without the necessary skills to transition into new fields.
In 2024, several large manufacturing companies have faced significant layoffs, reflecting the broader challenges in the sector. General Motors and Ford have both had substantial cuts, with GM reducing 936 jobs in September and Ford cutting up to 1,600 jobs at its Valencia plant earlier in the year. These cuts are driven by both shifts in production focus and economic challenges.
Additionally, ArcelorMittal, one of the largest steel producers in the world, has announced 3,500 job cuts in Luxembourg, and Hino Motors, a subsidiary of Toyota, will be shutting down its largest U.S. auto parts plant, affecting 1,300 workers . Goodyear Tires has also laid off 1,200 employees, further adding to the distress in the manufacturing sector .
These layoffs highlight the structural changes happening in manufacturing, with automation, supply chain issues, and shifting market demands forcing companies to reduce their workforce, even in traditionally stable industries.
The ripple effect is clear: as manufacturing companies downsize, many workers are being displaced without the necessary skills to transition to new, in-demand roles, adding to the long-term unemployment problem.
The September jobs report showed gains in some sectors like construction, health services, and leisure and hospitality - but these gains are masking a deeper issue. These aren’t the stable, long-term roles most people need. The average work week is down to 34.2 hours… and that’s NOT because people are making what they need to…. and furthermore, this does’t solve the fundamental issue of high long-term unemployment.
ADP data shows small businesses with up to 49 workers have been reducing workers for five months.
Let’s not sugarcoat this: even as jobs were added in September, they were concentrated in a few narrow areas, which may not provide suitable roles for those who have been long-term unemployed. And while some growth is better than none, these sectors are more volatile and less stable compared to traditional employment drivers like manufacturing and retail trade.
The Pain Isn’t Spread Equally: Who’s Left in the Dust?
The situation is even more dire for certain demographic groups. The unemployment rate for Black Americans stood at 5.7% in September, compared to 3.6% for Whites, and this gap is widening.
This isn’t just a matter of numbers; it’s a systemic issue rooted in disparities in access to quality education, professional networks, and career-building opportunities. The skills gap between different demographic groups makes it even harder for many to break into higher-level positions, despite being qualified.
I am ALL for skills powered organizations… infact I need to read the latest book by Ravin Jesuthasen — The Skills-Power-. The Journey to the Next-Generation Enterprise — But my worry is that companies are STILL focused on the wrong thing to find the best person for the job and this won’t help the overall U-6 rates which will eventually compound even further.
Another worrying sign? Youth unemployment. Teenagers aged 16-19 are stuck at a sky-high unemployment rate of 14.3%, suggesting that even entry-level positions are either disappearing or being taken by more experienced candidates looking to get their foot back in the door. And this lack of early work experience? It creates a ripple effect, making it harder for these young job seekers to secure stable employment later on.
Reasons for Unemployment - September 2024
The Real Employment Crisis: What You Don’t Know (And Why It’s Hurting Your Chances)
Let’s rip the veil off this whole thing shall we — because there’s a dark reality behind those monthly job reports that nobody is talking about.
While the headlines love to trumpet job growth and dropping unemployment rates, the truth is that most job openings aren’t actually open at all.
A few months back there was a big media push on Fake jobs… companies are using fake job postings to gauge the market, and you—yes, you—are just a data point for their next strategy meeting.
From a company perspective, over posting jobs that aren’t actually available risks damaging the company’s reputation. It makes it impossible to find candidates. Will some companies bump up numbers or try to build up a pipeline pool of candidates, sure, it happens. But this? I live in this sector - I speak to HR leaders.
They can't find qualified candidates.
Are we really expected to believe that there is some secret department posting hundreds of erroneous job ads for these companies and HR wasn't let in on the secret?
They’re running the numbers, not hiring the people. So not so much fake jobs- but ghosting…they are trying to find more and more candidates- because all those AI resumes y’ll are creating thinking you are master of the universe… well you are all cookie cutters with not so great documents.
Am I biased- yeah, maybe- but you wouldn’t just use an AI to do your surgery yet would you… exactly- so why are you messing with your own salary and future?
But these ‘fake jobs’ — They are called ghost postings… Every time you apply for a job that never responds or go through rounds of interviews for a position that suddenly “closes,” you’re not just wasting your time - are you being used? I’ll let you discuss in the comments.
And here’s something that’ll really rattle you: many companies have slashed their hiring budgets for 2024, even while posting these phantom roles to keep their pipelines filled. Why? Because it’s cheaper to keep a pool of potential candidates on standby than to pay recruitment fees and onboard employees who might be cut six months later. I understand why companies do this… BUT….
This tactic keeps people stuck in a constant state of job-hunting purgatory, with no intention to hire until it’s absolutely necessary.
It’s keeping the employment market artificially inflated, making it seem like there are opportunities when in reality, there’s a hiring freeze across key sectors. The result? The long-term unemployed are being lured into a labyrinth of fake jobs, irrelevant postings, and false hope.
When I coach companies on talent planning, I emphasize that today’s hiring needs to look radically different. Very few organizations are adapting fast enough to accommodate the shifting landscape.
Instead, they’re throwing money at bloated HR tech stacks, thinking these tools will magically fix their hiring issues. Spoiler: they won’t. Companies are pouring cash into retention efforts—offering gimmicky perks like dog videos and virtual game nights—but let’s be real, those perks aren’t keeping people engaged or productive.
Meanwhile, the job market is propped up by irrelevant postings and phantom jobs, trapping job seekers in a cycle of false hope. If companies want to succeed, they need to rethink their entire talent strategy, investing in the development of high-impact roles that align with where the market is headed, not where it’s been.
It’s about proactive planning, not reactive hiring, and that’s the kind of shift I’m pushing companies toward.
And that’s not all. Companies are increasingly turning job interviews into free consulting sessions, asking candidates to submit extensive work samples, strategic plans, or technical solutions as part of the “screening” process.
Case interviews use to be just for management consulting and some areas in finance- but not today- it’s everywhere. I am having more and more job seekers ask my help for case interview prep. I love doing it and helping out when I can, but these long winded interviews are STILL not finding the best candidates… I gotta say… companies need to rethink this.
Does it exploit the desperation of highly skilled professionals, using their expertise to fine-tune business strategies for free? Again- discuss amongst yourself in the comments.
What I will say about case interviews- if you are asked to one- NEVER back out. How does that make you look as a candidate? AWFUL.
You have beaten 100+ candidates into this interview… Go get this job. Be a dynamo.
And I know people will say- but I didn’t want to work for them so I quit. Well, actions speak louder than words. I hear a lot of companies that had 2-3 people in a case interview actually place the runner up in another role or recommend them on to another company. Don’t ever drop out of case interviews.
This whole hiring cluster has to change, and I’m here to change it.
I’m not just ranting from the sidelines. I’ve been watching this happen for too long, and I’m not okay with it.
That’s why I’m building something new - an entirely different approach to hiring that cuts through the BS, the fake postings, and the rigged systems (don’t get me started on recruiters right now)
I cannot wait to fully launch what I’ve been building - something that will flip hiring on its head and put power back in the hands of the candidates.
You deserve a process that’s transparent, fair, and doesn’t treat you like a disposable commodity.
Lateral Moves Are Career Kryptonite
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Here’s something I always tell mid-management professionals and those in senior roles: stop being a lateral candidate.
Stop taking these safe, sideways moves that don’t elevate your career, your salary, or your options.
It feels comfortable, sure—but it’s career kryptonite.
Every time you make a lateral move, you’re not gaining seniority, you’re not expanding your influence, and you’re definitely not building your reputation as a leader.
Let me be blunt: You don’t become CEO overnight.
But you sure as hell don’t get there by staying stuck at the same level, making lateral moves year after year.
Lateral moves are the path to professional stagnation, and in this job market, stagnation is a death sentence for your career trajectory. Can you tell I am passionate about this?
You need to be aiming for the next level, even if it’s at a smaller company where you can gain the experience and authority you need.
Every move you make should be strategic.
Every job change should elevate you. I see too many professionals hopping from one safe role to another, thinking they’re building a stable career. But they’re really just spending five, ten, even fifteen years spinning their wheels while the world moves forward.
What Needs to Change (And Why No One is Teaching This)
So, what’s the solution? It’s not just a matter of going back to school or slapping another certification onto your LinkedIn profile. We need a complete rethink on how we approach career development in this environment. We need to focus on targeted upskilling and strategic positioning, not just checking off boxes on a career advice checklist. Yeah, you know the ones with awful advice that changes month to month depending on the media meta…
Here’s what needs to happen:
1. Targeted Upskilling: It’s not enough to just get another certificate or complete a general tech course. We need targeted upskilling that aligns with future demand areas—like AI governance, strategic project management, or data analytics leadership. These aren’t just buzzwords; these are fields where companies are investing in talent. If you’re not aiming for these niches, you’re going to get left behind.
2. Elevate to High-Level Roles Faster: If you’re just trying to land an entry-level position or hopping from one manager role to the next, you’re competing with every fresh graduate and displaced worker. You need to pivot into mid-level or senior roles, even if it feels like a stretch. The longer you wait, the harder it becomes to catch up.
3. Strategic Networking: Forget coffee chats and informational interviews that go nowhere. Use your network to find out where companies are feeling pain—whether it’s talent shortages, operational bottlenecks, or leadership gaps. Approach hiring managers with specific solutions, not just a plea for an opportunity.
4. Champion the Right Narrative: We need to move away from the narrative of “just hang on” and instead emphasize actionable steps to elevate one’s career trajectory. Companies aren’t looking for workers anymore—they’re looking for problem solvers, leaders, and strategic thinkers. That means your messaging needs to change: are you positioning yourself as a job seeker or a strategic partner?
When you work with me, you’re not just getting a standard career coach—you’re partnering with someone who knows how to get results in today’s hyper-competitive job market.
I specialize in helping serious job seekers move beyond lateral moves and break into the next level of their careers. Whether it’s strategic positioning, personal branding, or interview prep that sets you apart, I dive deep into your unique strengths and help you create a clear roadmap to land those high-impact, high-paying roles.
If you’re ready to stop playing it safe and start getting ahead, I’m the one you need to talk to. This isn’t just about landing a job—it’s about elevating your entire career trajectory. Let’s make sure the next move you make is the one that changes everything.
Stop Waiting—Start Elevating
The economic bounce-back most people are waiting for isn’t happening. While inflation may eventually ease and the Federal Reserve might pause rate hikes, the employment landscape is permanently altered. If you’re not actively pursuing career elevation—now—you’re going to be left behind.
The longer someone remains unemployed, the more they risk becoming “unemployable” in the eyes of companies that are laser-focused on cutting costs and driving efficiency. We need to get people out of this long-term unemployment category—fast.
So, what’s my message to you? Elevate now, or risk irrelevance. Take on the big challenges. Move into roles you think are out of reach. Challenge yourself to become the expert, the strategist, the leader that companies can’t afford to lose.
And if you’re not hearing this advice anywhere else, that’s because I’m here to give it to you—loud and clear. In today’s market, you’re either moving up, or you’re getting left behind.
Need a laugh after this? I’ve gotcha covered……
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