Jobs Data Week - Unemployment Trends to Watch

It's Jobs Data Week... Let's see if I can keep up with it all.

Happy New Year. January sets the tone for the rest of the year. This is when we start to see the hiring signals companies were too quiet about in Q4. Are we looking at cautious optimism, or is the job market expecting the worse. Sure things can ebb and flow all year… but, this kicks off sentiment.

Here’s what I’ll be watching:

• Unemployment Trends: If we see a spike in December’s carryover, that’s a red flag for Q1 hiring freezes.

• Industries Adding Jobs: Are tech and healthcare bouncing back, or are we still stuck in ‘slow but steady’?

• Labor Force Participation: Gen X and Boomers have been making a comeback—will that hold as companies rethink what “experienced” looks like?

To be real… January hiring data is never perfect. It will also be revised. Which if it is already low- that is worrying. Some people even expect lower than estimated figures- by a lot. By Friday, we’ll have a better sense of where the cracks are and where the opportunities might be.

If you’re hunting for a job or hiring talent, watch these trends closely. Stick with me this week—I’ll break it all down.

#1 𝐒𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐥𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐉𝐨𝐛𝐬 𝐃𝐚𝐭𝐚 𝐑𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤:
Jolts Tuesday
ADP Wednesday
NFP Friday
Updates on job openings and private wage growth, as well as readings on activity in the services sectors, are also on the schedule.

#2 I expect the U.S. 𝐮𝐧𝐞𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐨𝐲𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝟒.𝟑𝟔% in December. Highest since October 2021, according to Bloomberg. Bad news on unemployment rate rising -- On the plus side - I am see hiring happen faster than it has been for many sectors right now. But yes, hiring rate overall is down.

#3 How many jobs were added in 2024?
What will December show us? Estimates are at the 𝟭𝟱𝟬𝗞 - 𝗶𝘀𝗵 mark.

My projections are around 124K for ADP and NFP hovering around the 136-140K mark (which is ultimately revised downward.) If a true NFP payroll stat was provided I would suggest it would be around 124-128K.

227,000 in November 2024
36,000 in October 2024
255,000 in September 2024
78,000 in August 2024
144,000 in July 2024
118,000 in June 2024
216,000 in May 2024
175,000 in April 2024
303,000 in March 2024
270,000 in February 2024
256,000 in January 2024

#4 We can’t ignore the un-inversion of the yield curve—it’s signaling we’re nearing the end of the business cycle. With unemployment already ticking up, a steeper yield curve could push it higher and potentially trigger a recession.

For the job market, the best move is to prepare now. Unemployment is expected to rise, but taking steps to safeguard yourself can make all the difference. I recommend sticking with a job, until you find another one, and looking at roles moving forward that are safe. Get to know the company and what is going on with them before you make that leap.

#5 Based on the forecasted 𝐅𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐓𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐄𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐨𝐲𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞 and 𝗝𝗼𝗯𝗹𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗖𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗺𝘀 in the coming months, Long Term Unemployment will continue to increase. This is what most are not realizing with all the headlines of there are SOOO many jobs-- yeah, there are... but they are part time. THIS forecast is absolutely frightening though. You think the job market and salary figures are tough now....

You know I’ll be flinging charts and data at ya non stop this week. 😉 NEWS Video series on my YouTube Channel starts this week- don’t miss it!